Anthropic expects annualized revenue to exceed $120 billion by the end of 2026, while only 22.5% of its customers remain after one year. The AI startup seeks a public market valuation between $2 trillion and $4 trillion, which requires public investors to accept a business model that replaces more than three-quarters of its client base annually. Competition from OpenAI and a rise in cheaper open models have reduced switching costs for the company's user base.

Performance at the lab affects hyperscaler earnings, as Anthropic and OpenAI generate 27% of Google Cloud revenue and 13% of AWS revenue this year. Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft reported a cumulative $160 billion in other income in the second quarter, driven largely by valuation boosts in private AI companies. A $2 trillion listing would represent a large share of the $4.1 trillion total starting value of all 3,365 tech companies that went public between 1980 and 2025.